US-China Relations:
US-China Relations: Taiwan and Iran as Global Geopolitical Pawns
#PrabowoSubianto #ForeignMinisterSugiono #Taiwan #China #Iran
By
Yayasan Pendidikan Indonesia
Special Consultative Status with ECOSOC United Nations since 2013
Introduction.
In the complex chessboard of international politics, the United States and China are engaged in long-term strategic competition that shapes global stability. Recent statements by President Donald Trump have brought into sharper focus the often-unspoken realities of this dynamic, particularly concerning Taiwan. These remarks underscore not merely geographical distances, but the hard strategic, economic, and military interests at play.
Taiwan lies approximately 95 kilometers (59 miles) from the Chinese mainland, while the United States is more than 9,500 miles away. China is a formidable power with significant military and economic strength. Taiwan, through companies such as TSMC, dominates a substantial portion of global advanced semiconductor production — the backbone of critical technologies including artificial intelligence, smartphones, and defense systems. President Trump has previously described Taiwan as having “stolen” the American chip industry, reflecting a pragmatic, transactional worldview.
Taiwan: Beyond the Narrative of a “Beacon of Democracy”.
Western narratives have long portrayed Taiwan primarily as a democratic ally to be defended. However, a more nuanced analysis reveals that Taiwan’s value to Washington lies chiefly in its role as a strategic pressure point against China. It serves less as an end in itself regarding sovereignty or freedoms, and more as a source of friction that constrains China’s ambitions in the Indo-Pacific.
Taiwan’s geography makes military defense particularly challenging for the United States. Extended transoceanic logistics, combined with China’s advancing military capabilities, lead many analysts to question the feasibility of full-scale intervention. President Trump has emphasized his reluctance to “travel 9,500 miles to fight a war.” U.S. policy remains deliberately ambiguous: it does not explicitly support Taiwanese independence, yet opposes any unilateral change to the status quo.
In the recent meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jinping in Beijing (May 2026), Xi Jinping reaffirmed that Taiwan is the most important issue in U.S.-China relations and warned that mishandling it could trigger conflict. President Trump indicated that U.S. policy remains unchanged while refraining from open-ended commitments on major arms sales. This reflects an “America First” approach — pragmatic, transactional, and centered on cost-benefit calculations.
Taiwan stands as a bold piece on the chessboard, yet its fate is ultimately determined by the major players rather than by the piece itself. Should the costs of defense become prohibitive or when economic interests — such as semiconductor supply chains — can be adequately diversified, priorities may shift. The United States continues to encourage onshoring of chip production through the CHIPS Act, though progress has been gradual.
Linkage with Iran: Another Proxy Arena.
U.S.-China competition extends beyond Taiwan into the Middle East, including Iran. Recent developments involving Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz reportedly featured in Trump-Xi discussions. As a major buyer of Iranian oil, China holds significant economic leverage there. The United States is said to have sought Chinese assistance in reopening vital energy routes, while China offers cooperation even as it benefits from any distraction of U.S. focus away from Asia.
This exemplifies classic great-power competition. When the U.S. is heavily engaged in the Middle East, China gains greater freedom of action in its own region — and vice versa. Tensions over Taiwan can serve as a diversion for China. Both theaters function as arenas of influence, leverage, and proxy dynamics, where indirect competition allows testing of resolve without direct superpower confrontation.
Lessons for Indonesia and the International Community
In an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape, the U.S.-China rivalry affects not only Taiwan and Iran but also serves as a critical test for regional countries, including Indonesia. The Indonesian Education Foundation is confident that under the leadership of President Prabowo Subianto, Indonesia will steadfastly uphold its independent and active foreign policy (bebas aktif), avoiding entrapment in great-power rivalry.
President Prabowo has demonstrated a wise and pragmatic approach. Indonesia maintains constructive relations with both Washington and Beijing without taking sides. Reciprocal high-level visits and the guiding principle that “a thousand friends are too few, one enemy is too many” reflect a firm commitment to sovereignty and national interests amid global pressures.
Handling of the U.S. Overflight Access Proposal: A Model of Diplomatic Skill.
A clear example is Indonesia’s careful management of the United States’ proposal for blanket overflight access for American military aircraft. Emerging amid regional and global tensions, including Middle East developments, the proposal has been handled with caution and transparency by the Indonesian government through coordinated efforts between the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Defense.
The matter remains under thorough internal review, with strong emphasis on national sovereignty and independent-active principles. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has cautioned against any agreement that could draw Indonesia into conflicts involving third parties. To date, no final agreement has been reached, and Indonesia has reaffirmed full national control over its airspace. This balanced handling — keeping doors open to mutually beneficial defense cooperation while safeguarding independence — serves as an exemplary model of diplomatic navigation.
Commitment of Yayasan Pendidikan Indonesia.
The Indonesian Education Foundation firmly supports President Prabowo’s leadership in maintaining an independent, active, and omnidirectional foreign policy oriented toward national interests. Indonesia does not need to choose between China and the United States. It can cooperate with both — leveraging Chinese investment and technology alongside American defense and economic partnerships — provided such cooperation aligns with the Constitution and the interests of the Indonesian people.
Amid tensions in the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and the Middle East, Indonesia must continue strengthening ASEAN diplomacy, diversifying its economy, and advancing self-reliant defense modernization. The younger generation is encouraged to understand geopolitics critically: not as passive observers, but as intelligent and sovereign actors.
History demonstrates that wise nations avoid entrapment in great-power polarization. A pawn that understands the board strengthens its own position rather than awaiting its fate at the hands of the major players. In an era of intensifying U.S.-China competition, Indonesia must stand firm as a sovereign nation — deriving benefits from cooperation while remaining vigilant against geopolitical traps
